Each week I project how AP voters will react to the week's results in men's college basketball by guessing one day ahead of time how the votes will ultimately be tabulated when posted every Monday. Rarely have we gotten drama this season at the top because the top teams -- Auburn, Tennessee, Duke among them -- have been so consistent. But theoretically we could have drama this week after No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Duke both fell Saturday.
I project the fallout Monday will be somewhat anticlimactic for those itching to see chaos.
I checked the history to see what sort of precedent voters have set on this front -- taking into account, of course that each situation is different -- and what I found is that Auburn will likely remain No. 1. In 2022, Gonzaga, then 24-2 and the unanimous No. 1 team, lost on a Saturday but remained No. 1 in the next AP poll -- only losing its unanimous status. In 2023, Purdue, then 22-1 and the unanimous No. 1, lost on a Sunday and remained No. 1 in the next AP poll -- also losing only its unanimous status.
The only exception in the last few years came in 2023-24 when UConn, then 24-2 and the unanimous No. 1, suffered a loss and fell two spots in the next poll. That fall came as Houston and Purdue had comparable résumés at the time.
No other team has a comparable résumé to Auburn -- which has a college hoops-leading 12 Quad 1 wins -- at this time. That's why I'm projecting Auburn, the No. 1 team in college hoops for four consecutive weeks and the unanimous No. 1 for three consecutive weeks, will remain at No. 1 on Monday -- likely only losing its unanimous status.
Alabama may earn first-place votes as it moves up, but I find it unlikely any team supplants the Tigers. Maybe I'll be wrong. But there's history to suggest Auburn will remain No. 1. And it's what I'd do if I had a vote.
Below is how I project they will decide on the Auburn decision and the ranking of every other team in the Top 25 poll when it is released Monday.
| 1 |  |
| Auburn leads college basketball with 12 Quad 1 wins and is No. 1 still in the NET and in Wins Above Bubble despite a weekend loss to Florida. The Tigers have a good chance of remaining at No. 1 with the punishment of the loss only losing its status as the unanimous No. 1. Last week: No. 1 | |
| 2 |  |
| With six straight wins and a 9-1 SEC record that ties for the best in the league with Auburn, Alabama has a chance to unseat the rival Tigers on Monday at the top of the poll. My guess: voters cast some first-place votes to the Tide, but not enough to change the guard at the very top. Last week: No. 3 | |
| 3 |  |
| Duke's college basketball-leading 16-game winning streak snapped Saturday with a 77-71 road loss to Clemson. It may fall Monday but is unlikely to fall far given its body of work and close loss to a team that may be ranked on Monday. Last week: No. 2 | |
| 4 |  |
| Tennessee demolished SEC newcomer Oklahoma over the weekend by 18 points, its 12th win this season by that margin or greater. Only Duke has more blowouts this season by that margin. Last week: No. 4 | |
| 5 |  |
| One week after being held to 44 points in a loss to Tennessee -- its lowest scoring output in more than three decades! -- Florida rallied to down No. 1 Auburn on Saturday in an offensive clinic. Go figure. Gators have the goods to be dangerous in March and have now defeated two No. 1-ranked teams this season. Last week: No. 6 | |
| 6 |  |
| Houston suffered its first loss in two months last Saturday but got off the mat quickly with wins this week over Oklahoma State and Colorado by nine and 10 points, respectively, to remain tied atop the Big 12 standings with Arizona. Last week: No. 5 | |
| 7 |  |
| Matt Painter and his Purdue club have lost just once -- in a puzzling home dud in mid-January -- since the calendar turned to 2025. The Boilermakers won twice in two outings this week vs. Iowa and USC and are solo leading the Big Ten title race. Last week: No. 7 | |
| 8 |  |
| Perhaps the most impressive win of the season by any team came Friday night inside Gampel Pavilion at St. John's dug out of an early 14-point deficit vs. UConn and won 68-62. It leads the Big East race and has won 10-straight. Last week: No. 12 | |
| 9 |  |
| The team that knows only close games won its only game this week by a razor-thin margin, 67-64, in an impressive road victory over Missouri. Three of its last four wins have come by four or fewer points. Last week: No. 10 | |
| 10 |  |
| Iowa State needed a hard reset after losing three-straight and got it Saturday at home, beating TCU 82-52. There was plenty of pent-up frustration in that one as the Cyclones have struggled lately, but that might get them back on track after their recent skid. Last week: No. 8 | |
| 11 |  |
| Michigan State prevented an outright implosion with an 86-74 home win over Oregon on Saturday to snap its losing streak at two. Jase Richardson scored a career-high 29 points in the comeback in front of his pops and the 2000 title-winning Spartans. Last week: No. 9 | |
| 12 |  |
| Late Saturday, Arizona downed Texas Tech in Tucson 82-73 to improve to 11-1 in the Big 12, avenging its lone loss of the 2025 calendar year that came in January when it fell to Texas Tech at home by 16 points. Zona remains red-hot and right in the mix to win the Big 12. Last week: No. 20 | |
| 13 |  |
| A bump up the ranks is in store for Memphis after defeating Tulsa and Temple this week to claim its 11th win in its last 12 outings. Several teams in this range took losses this week, but the Tigers were not among them. Last week: No. 17 | |
| 14 |  |
| The red-hot Red Raiders slipped on the road Saturday night to Arizona in Tucson but have still been one of the most consistent teams the last month with wins over the likes of Houston, Baylor and Arizona. Last week: No. 13 | |
| 15 |  |
| Marquette has lost three-straight in Big East play after losses this week at St. John's and Creighton. It is in jeopardy of falling to its lowest rank of the season Monday, which was No. 18 in the preseason poll. Last week: No. 11 | |
| 16 |  |
| Lamont Butler returned to the lineup for Kentucky this weekend and played a key role in dismantling visiting South Carolina in an 80-57 win. UK has hit some bumps the last few weeks with four losses in its last six games. Last week: No. 14 | |
| 17 |  |
| Double-digit wins this week over Indiana and Iowa moved Wisconsin to within two games of Purdue in the Big Ten title race. Badgers are hiding in plain sight as one of the better teams in the sport in a deep Big Ten. Last week: No. 21 | |
| 18 |  |
| A 76-75 road win over Georgia Saturday was exactly what Mississippi State needed to snap its two-game losing skid. It faces Florida on Tuesday at home with a chance to land its biggest win of the season. Last week: No. 22 | |
| 19 |  |
| Dusty May led Michigan into his old stomping grounds and defeated Indiana over the weekend to give the Wolverines their fourth consecutive win. They are 10-2 in league play and just a half-game back of Purdue. Last week: 24 | |
| 20 |  |
| Two close losses to top-15 teams this week will cost Missouri, but likely not much, after hanging tight at Tennessee and narrowly falling at home to Texas A&M. Last week: No. 15 | |
| 21 |  |
| Creighton has won nine-straight in Big East play and might be the hottest team in the league. It faces UConn and St. John's this week to test that theory with a chance to move up to the top of the league standings. Last week: NR | |
| 22 |  |
| A 90-81 home win Sunday over Rutgers helped Maryland get back into the win column after a tough mid-week road loss to Ohio State in a game it could have, and probably should have, won. Terps are 5-1 in their last six. Last week: No. 18 | |
| 23 |  |
| There's a real chance Kansas is bounced from the rankings this week after falling 81-73 at Kansas State on Saturday. It has alternated between losses and wins the last five games and looks like a shell of the preseason No. 1 team we all expected it'd be. Last week: No. 16 | |
| 24 |  |
| Voters likely won't penalize UConn much for its home loss Friday to league-leading St. John's. It faces Creighton this week, though, which might determine whether or not it remains in the rankings or not. Last week: No. 19 | |
| 25 |  |
| Chris Beard and Co. went 2-0 this week with wins over Kentucky and LSU. The Rebels are a projected 4-seed in Jerry Palm's latest bracket. Last week: No. 25 | |
Projected to drop out: Illinois
