A funny thing happened on my way to writing this 2025 Fantasy Baseball First Base Preview: I kind of talked myself into actually liking the state of the first base position.
Maybe.Â
To be clear, the first base position reached what we hope was a nadir collectively in 2024, as I wrote earlier in the offseason. A combination of a number of factors – the universal DH and a lack of impact young bats to replace fading superstars like Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt chief among them – led to one of the worst offensive seasons we've ever seen from the first base position in 2024. From 2002 through 2023, MLB first basemen collectively posted at least a 110 wRC+ in all but three seasons, per FanGraphs.com's database, and the 107 mark from 2024 was the worst mark at least in that stretch.
- Position Strategies:Â CÂ |Â 1BÂ |Â 2BÂ |Â 3BÂ |Â SSÂ |Â OFÂ |Â SPÂ |Â RP
- Position Previews:Â CÂ |Â 1BÂ |Â 2BÂ |Â 3BÂ |Â SSÂ |Â OFÂ |Â SPÂ |Â RP
- Position Tiers:Â CÂ |Â 1BÂ |Â 2BÂ |Â 3BÂ |Â SSÂ |Â OFÂ |Â SPÂ |Â RP
At the top of the position, Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, and Freddie Freeman all disappointed. Meanwhile, hoped-for breakouts from the likes of Tristan Casas, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand failed to materialize, leaving us with both fewer impact bats than we usually have at first base and a shallower pool of low-end options to choose from. So, how did I manage to talk myself into liking the state of the first base position?
Mostly, it comes down to the depth of the position. The top 12 first baseman will feel relatively weak if you've been playing this game for a long time, and that's mostly where the perception of weakness comes from. We're still waiting for that next wave of first basemen to take over, and I think we're going to see a number of steps forward that make us view the position more positively this time next year.Â
I'm still in on the breakout potential for Casas, Pasquantino, and Encarnacion-Strand – and the latter's severely depressed price makes that even easier to bet on. But once you get outside of the top 12, there are a number of guys I expect better things from in 2025. Michael Toglia is chief among them – and I will be adding him to my Breakouts 2.0 column when we publish that in March – but I'm also optimistic about Ryan Mountcastle getting back to being a potential impact bat, and I could see a big bounceback season from Yandy Diaz.
That's not to say you can or should just punt the position and only draft late-round options at first base, of course. Because once you get to around 22nd at the position, you start to run out of names worth being optimistic about. Plenty of drafters are going to be choosing first basemen to be their corner infielders, so you certainly don't want to be left with a situation where you're relying on Josh Bell as a starting option for 2025.Â
But there are enough interesting options in the 12-20 range of the first base rankings that I don't hate the idea of double-dipping for my 1B and CI spots in that range. There's upside there, and if at least a few of them hit, we're going to be looking at this position much more optimistically this time next year.Â
Let's hope, at least. We need it.Â
Guerrero's underlying metrics have remained very strong since his MVP season in 2021, but the production lagged behind, especially in 2023, leading some to wonder whether there was something holding him back from living up to his still-considerable potential. 2024 proved that Guerrero can still be one of the most dominant hitters in baseball, and while it might be too much to expect he'll ever hit 48 homers again, the elite production he brought to the table in 2024 was more than enough. There's a chance he falls back to being a high-.700s/low-.800s OPS bat again, but I don't worry too much about it after 2024.
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Harper is a step below the elite tier these days, though in 2024 that was mostly because his counting stats were weirdly low, an issue I don't expect to carry over to 2025. Harper may just have one more MVP-caliber season left in him, and his price should account for the possibility of that. But for the most part, he's rightly viewed as a safe second-rounder, one who probably doesn't provide elite production in any one category, but who also won't hurt you in any either. It's worth noting, however, that there was a notable dip in his underlying stats in 2025, as Harper posted a .357 xwOBA, his worst mark since 2016. For a 32-year-old, that's at least a little bit concerning.
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Freeman had a difficult season, dealing with a health scare for his son that kept him away from the team for a stretch over the summer as well as a finger injury (and, later, an ankle injury that ultimately required surgery). He's expected to be ready by Opening Day, but he's also 35 and coming off ankle surgery, so it's fair to wonder if he'll ever be that dominant Fantasy option again – the speed, especially, feels like it isn't coming back after his shocking 23-steal campaign in 2024. But if all he is in 2025 is a batting average standout who hits 25 homers in a good lineup, nobody will complain, especially now that he's going off the board more around the 2-3 turn in drafts.
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Odd-year Matt Olson, anyone? He has alternated career years with disappointments every year going back to 2017, though I think this is more about the inherent volatility in Olson's skill set. He has settled in around a 24% strikeout rate, so it's the quality of contact that has really fluctuated the past few seasons – his 91.5 mph average exit velocity in 2025 was still an 85th percentile mark for the league, but was down more than 2 mph from 2023. Olson turns 31 a few days after Opening Day, so last year could just be what the decline phase of his career looks like. That's still pretty good, but the upside he showed in 2023 is still worth chasing – at a discount.
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Alonso is seeing similar declines in skill set as Olson, but he's coming from a lower baseline in terms of quality of contact. Put that together with an all-fields approach as a power hitter and a first-base-only profile, and you can see why teams are hesitant to invest a significant amount in him as a free agent. If he avoids any further regression, he's one of the steadiest sources of power in the league – and if he returns to the Mets, he could be hitting his 35-40 homers behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, making him about as good a bet to lead the majors in RBI as you'll find. There's room for a ton of profit at a depressed price right now, but if he lands in the wrong spot, the whole profile looks even less appealing.
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You could use Perez as your first baseman. His 27 homers, 104 RBI, and .271 average compare pretty favorably to some of the 1B in his range of the draft, even. But you're giving up a huge edge on the competition if you do use him at first base, so don't!
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Walker moved on to the Astros as a free agent, and while he's old enough that you could certainly see some slippage coming, it hasn't happened yet. In fact, his 91.2 mph average exit velocity in 2024 was a career-best mark, and now he's got a nice park upgrade for half his games to help cover up for whatever regression might be on the way. In that park, hitting in the middle of a still-good Astros lineup, Walker seems like as safe a bet for 30-plus homers and 100-ish RBI as a 34-year-old can get.
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Naylor benefited from Cleveland's home park playing much more hitter-friendly for lefties last season, and now he'll be playing half his games in the park that has been the toughest for left-handed power hitters in baseball over the past three seasons, per BaseballSavant.com's park factors. That doesn't make me feel great about his chances of repeating last season's career-best power production. However, it's a much better lineup, and Naylor has always been an RBI standout, so if you're looking for a dark horse candidate to lead the majors in RBI, Naylor isn't a bad pick.
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Bellinger predictably regressed in 2024, hitting eight fewer homers and stealing 11 fewer bases in the same number of games as the previous season. But don't be surprised if he bounces back in 2025 thanks to that short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. Bellinger could find himself hitting behind Aaron Judge, too, which could lead to tons of RBI opportunities – or tons of runs if he ends up ahead of Judge. Either way, this was close to a best-case landing spot for the aging Bellinger, who should bring some out-of-position speed to your Roto lineups.
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Casas is more or less getting a pass for 2024, with his ADP slipping just about one round from last year. I'm inclined to agree with that, seeing as how a rib injury in April really derailed his season and limited him to just 63 games. But there were some red flags in his profile, including a 29% strikeout rate in April before the injury. Casas still has big-time power potential, but in a park that limits left-handed power, his margin for error could be pretty slim, and a strikeout rate close to 30% is probably going to lead to a low batting average floor. But a Matt Olson-esque ceiling is still easy to see – just, perhaps, a bit less clearly than a year ago.
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It sure feels like Pasquantino should be better than he is, and there might still be some room for him to take that big step forward. He makes a ton of contact (12.8% strikeout rate in 2024) and hits the ball hard (91 mph average exit velocity), often to the right parts of the field to maximize power (45.8% pull rate). But his is a tough ballpark for power, and Pasquantino probably needs to be a 25-homer guy at least to really maximize his skill set, thanks to his batting average struggles. The good news is, his contact-heavy swing should continue to help him maximize RBI even if he never takes that next step forward. If all he is at this point is Josh Naylor but two to three rounds cheaper, that's not such a bad thing, is it?
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Steer brings a solid, well-rounded skill set to the table that helps overcome his fairly glaring limitations as a hitter. He's a power bat who doesn't hit the ball especially hard, which means it's going to be tough for him to get to 20 homers without sacrificing batting average like he did last season. As a 15-25 SB guy in a great home park, that probably means his price is fine. But if the Reds ever traded him, things could really go south in a hurry. The speed he brings to the table as a first baseman is almost impossible to replace, and the fact that he might add second-base eligibility at some point only helps his case. There's enough going right for Steer to overlook his limitations for now.
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When Burger was initially traded to the Rangers, I thought the risk of the bottom falling out was actually increased, because his margin for error as a player is incredibly slim – he basically needs to hit close to 30 homers to be a starting-caliber player, given his lack of on-base skills and defense. But after the Rangers traded Nathaniel Lowe – a better player! – to the Nationals, Burger's playing time seems pretty safe in what should be a very good lineup. He won't hit much better than .250, but he should at least provide something close to 30 homers and 90 RBI. That's fine from a starting first baseman, though better for a corner infielder if you have the choice.
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Goldschmidt got a park and lineup upgrade with his move to the Yankees, but if he doesn't hit better than he did last season, it won't matter much where he's playing. The good news is, his underlying numbers were better than his actual production in 2024, suggesting he probably should have hit more like .255, and you could hope for 25 homers in Yankee Stadium. Add in another 10 or so steals, and a low-end No. 1 1B outcome isn't impossible to see, especially at a nicely discounted price.
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If you're a believer in advanced stats, Toglia represents one of the better values in Fantasy right now. Toglia is coming off a season where he hit 25 homers and stole 10 bases in just 116 games, but he did so with just a .218 batting average, which is pretty scary. But his expected batting average was .244, and with Coors Field as his home, it's not unreasonable to expect him to outrun that a little – he was the only qualifying hitter on the Rockies to underperform his xBA and is one of just two in the StatCast era to underperform by more than 20 points. Toglia's strikeout rate is a problem, but if he can overcome it, he should be a must-start Fantasy option; if he improves on it, there's a path to a top-five finish at the position.
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Encarnacion-Strand is definitely not getting the benefit of the doubt from drafters for his 2024 – despite playing just 29 games, his ADP has fallen almost 100 spots from last year. His 2024 was a disaster, as Encarnacion-Strand struggled even before suffering what would ultimately be a season-ending wrist injury that required surgery. Skepticism is reasonable, given all that, but it's worth noting that Encarnacion-Strand was healthy enough to play in the Arizona Fall League and should have no limitations this spring, so there's certainly a buying opportunity here with a guy everyone was excited to draft a year ago.
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Diaz couldn't sustain the gains he made in 2023, losing eight homers and nearly 50 points in batting average from his breakout. A .281 batting average is still plenty useful, but the collapse of Diaz's power production was especially tough to stomach since it also came with 13 fewer RBI and an astonishing 40 fewer runs. The Rays lineup should be much improved in 2025, and while I don't expect Diaz to get back to being a 20-plus homer guy, a bounceback in his counting stats is pretty easy to project. And in H2H points leagues, his plate discipline continues to make him a viable low-end starter.
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It's not an exaggeration to say that Mountcastle's career was derailed by the Orioles' decision to move the fences back some 30 feet in left field three years ago. They aren't moving them all the way back in this season, but Camden Yards should play a lot closer to neutral, and that should benefit a right-handed power hitter like Mountcastle especially. A return to 30 homers might be asking too much, but could he hit 25? With a helpful batting average and plenty of RBI in a very good Orioles lineup? Yeah, I think that's totally reasonable to expect. He could be one of the best values at the position.
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It might take some time to come to fruition because the Marlins do have a glut of guys at first base and DH right now. So we might see them cycle through the likes of Kyle Stowers, Jonah Bride, Griffin Conine, and Matt Mervis before they turn things over to De Los Santos. But … well, just look at that list of guys. I'm not saying there aren't major-league-caliber skills scattered among them, but they're all probably just guys. In fact, it might be the highest concentration of "Just A Guy" guys in MLB history. De Los Santos won't be 22 until close to midseason and is coming off a season where he hit .264/.311/.523 with nearly a 40-homer pace in his first taste of Triple-A, so while he has a similar skill set to the rest of those guys, there's clearly a bit more upside here. There's a real chance he just replaces Jake Burger for the Marlins, right down to the 30 beefy homers.
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We'll just run back last year's first base breakout pick with only slightly less enthusiasm. A rib injury cost Casas a huge chunk of last season and he took a big step back with his plate discipline, but I'm hoping the latter was a result of the former. If so, Casas remains one of the most intriguing potential power bats out there, with a high-end outcome that probably looks something like the median Matt Olson season even in a home park that makes it tough for him to live up to his full power potential. Casas hits the ball hard in the air, holds his own against lefties (.772 career OPS), and remains a young bat worth betting on. And if he gets that strikeout rate back down to 25%, where it was in 2023, the upside scenarios get really fun to dream about – remember, he had 15 homers in just 54 games after the All-Star break in 2023.
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The vibes aren't great for Alonso. A protracted, disappointing (for him) free agency process was easy to see coming from a mile away, and MLB team's lack of interest in his services is a reflection of how the one-dimensional slugger is valued, sure, but also how Alonso is expected to age. He's an all-fields slugger whose quality-of-contact metrics have been moving in the wrong direction since his peak. Alonso is still typically among the best power hitters in the league by the end of the season, but it's a profile without much margin for error – despite decent contact rates, he has hit .240 or worse in consecutive seasons, with a sub-.250 xBA in each season. If he returns to the Mets, he's going to drive in a ton of runs and probably be worth this price, but is that .240 average and 35-ish homers worth this price if it comes with 90-ish RBI in a lesser lineup? Is there that much of a difference between Alonso and Jake Burger in that outcome? I'm not convinced.
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Catcher Top Prospects
1. Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
Age (on opening day):Â 22
Where he played in 2024:Â Low-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats:Â .368 BA (38 AB), 4 HR, 1.283 OPS, 12 BB, 10 K
With his imposing 6-foot-5 presence in the left-handed batter's box, Kurtz invites comparisons to a first baseman from the Athletics' not-so-distant past, current Brave Matt Olson. It's not just in stature, mind you. His power comes naturally, playing to all fields rather than depending on him lofting the ball to his pull side, which should allow for a big home run total without compromising his batting average potential. He'll reach base plenty by way of walks as well.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact:Â midseason hopeful
2. Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants
Age (on opening day):Â 20
Where he played in 2024:Â Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats:Â .292 BA (446 AB), 23 HR, .890 OPS, 59 BB, 132 K
Aaron Judge ushered in an era of 6-foot-7 mashers, and while any prospect of that height is inevitably compared to the OG, Eldridge has a better chance than most of delivering league-leading home run totals, achieving the sort of exit velocities that propelled him to Triple-A at age 19. He also strikes out at a manageable rate and generally keeps the ball off the ground, avoiding the most comment pitfalls for prospects of his ilk.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact:Â late-season look
3. Jac Caglianone, 1B, Royals
Age (on opening day):Â 22
Where he played in 2024:Â High-A
Minor-league stats:Â .241 BA (116 AB), 2 HR, .690 OPS, 7 BB, 26 K
For the kind of exit velocities Caglianone generates -- and we're talking on the level of Oneil Cruz -- he's surprisingly good at making contact, perhaps too good since he's often fishing for pitches that can only lead to poor batted-ball outcomes, namely on the ground. The path to greatness, then, is obvious (stop chasing!) but easier said than done and far from a certainty for a player who's already so far along developmentally.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact:Â late-season look
4. Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays
Age (on opening day):Â 21
Where he played in 2024:Â High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats:Â .264 BA (367 AB), 18 HR, 15 SB, .850 OPS, 58 BB, 145 K
Isaac lost some momentum as a prospect last season, his strikeout rate spiking to dangerous levels (30.1 percent) at High-A and laughable ones (40.6 percent) during a 31-game stay at Double-A. Improvement is necessary and not unexpected given that he was experimenting with a leg kick to generate more power (not that he needed it), but clearly, the risk is elevated now.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact:Â late-season look
5. Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B, Marlins
Age (on opening day):Â 21
Where he played in 2024:Â Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats:Â .294 BA (538 AB), 40 HR, .914 OPS, 34 BB, 144 K
De Los Santos' 40 homers were six more than any other minor-leaguer and weren't a mirage in terms of how hard he hit the ball. But while swinging at 46 percent of pitches outside the zone might work against minor-league pitchers, it leaves open the door for major-leaguers to carve him up completely. We should find out pretty quickly whether he'll sink or swim, with the rebuilding Marlins offering plenty of opportunity.
Scott's 2025 Fantasy impact:Â fighting this spring
