We're inside of two months to go, and the innings question has become more of an interrogation.
I know someone is about to get shut down. Who is it? Who!?
Before we proceed further, I should note that a full-blown shutdown, wherein a team hits the breaks on a pitcher's season and puts him on ice until next year, isn't the go-to anymore. Teams prefer to manage their pitchers' workloads throughout the season, skipping turns and mixing in additional starters as needed. So the number of pitchers who will simply stop pitching is probably less than you think. That's especially true if you eliminate the final week, which is basically the Wild West.
But even if a pitcher isn't shut down, he could see his role changed or innings curtailed in a way that reduces his Fantasy utility to nothing. Among those we currently care about, I've identified 16 at risk of such a fate.
The first one is fairly obvious.
Note: Listed innings totals include minor-league and postseason contributions. This year's are up to date through Monday, Aug. 12.
Pitchers at risk
Innings limit concerns have muddied Garrett Crochet's breakout season from the beginning, and seeing as he hasn't gone more than four innings in a start since June, they've already come home to roost. His value to the White Sox is as a trade asset, so it's in their best interest to shut him down.
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The Tigers surely want the AL Cy Young front-runner to bring home the hardware, but they don't want a recurrence of the elbow flexor trouble that cost him so much time in 2023. They'll probably ease Tarik Skubal toward the finish line.
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Notably, Tyler Glasnow's career high in innings came as a minor-leaguer for the Pirates in 2017, and last year's 138 1/3 were his most thrown since then. With the Dodgers eyeing a deep playoff run, they might try to skip him a turn or two down the stretch.
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The Pirates did a good job managing Paul Skenes' innings on the front end, treating his April like spring training, so he could probably stick it out if they were serious contenders. But we're rapidly approaching the point where they're liable to say, "Why risk it?"
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I've set Cole Ragans' concern level to "medium" because the Royals are really depending on him as they fight for a playoff spot, but with his velocity lagging a couple miles per hour for now seven consecutive starts, it's reasonable to wonder how much further they can push him.
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Hunter Greene has taken a turn for the studly in a year when the Reds aren't looking like serious contenders. They'll probably slow him down as the season draws to a close, putting his innings in the 165-170 range.
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Michael King might seem like an obvious shutdown candidate after so many years spent in relief, but the Padres are fighting tooth and nail for playoff positioning and only control him through next year. He also took on some pretty big workloads in his minor-league days.
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Seeing as he's 34, it's reasonable to think Seth Lugo's inning preservation days are behind him, particularly with the Royals pushing for a playoff spot. But he's already in uncharted territory workload-wise, which is worth noting in case they fall out of the race and decide they want to save something for next year.
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The gains that Tanner Houck made as a strike-thrower earlier this season have slipped in recent starts as he's sailed past in his previous high in innings. Surely, the Red Sox value him enough as a long-term asset to shift him to the bullpen if they're still in the playoff race or perhaps shut him down completely if they're not.
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Luis Gil has not only exceeded his previous high in innings but is also newly returned from Tommy John surgery, making for a double whammy that many presumed would have shifted him to the bullpen already. The fight for the AL East has taken precedence, but Gil's outings have been getting shorter while Clarke Schmidt is gearing up to return from the IL.
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The Braves have carefully spaced out Reynaldo Lopez's starts all season long and have used his recent forearm issue, non-structural in nature, to build in even more rest. They'll presumably remain careful with him after all those years he spent working in relief, but their level of care may not go beyond what we've already seen.
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The Braves tried to skip Spencer Schwellenbach the last time through the rotation but couldn't find anyone else to fill in, which shows how integral he's become as a rookie. But seeing as he's a rookie, he's an asset they'll want to protect and has already exceeded his previous high by 50 innings.
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Nick Lodolo is at a point in his career where he should be able to throw 150 innings with ease, but after he lost so much of last season to injury, it would be a stretch to get him there. If the Reds slip further out of the playoff picture, they probably won't push it.
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Kutter Crawford's previous high in innings came way back in 2018, which probably makes last year's number the more relevant one. He's been getting crushed by home runs since the weather warmed up and the ball started carrying better, so he may lose his claim to a rotation spot purely on merit.
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Jake Irvin is hardly a kid at 27, but he is in only his sophomore season and has emerged as a genuine building block rather than just a space-filler. With the Nationals playing for nothing, they'll presumably choose to preserve their new asset at some point.
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A converted reliever, Jose Soriano hasn't made more than a handful of starts in a season since 2019, and because he averages 98 mph on his fastball, there's added risk to pushing the limits. No reason for the Angels to take that risk with what may be their opening day starter next year.
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