What does it take to love a matchup for a wide receiver in a given week?
Certainly, any avoidance of a shut-down cornerback is a good start. A secondary that's beat up, inexperienced, predictable or mistake-prone helps a ton. And any opponent that can't get consistent pressure on a quarterback will always help a wide receiver get open to make plays.
It's that logic that was used to curate Projected Strength of Schedule rankings for every single wide receiver room around the league. Using film analysis, study of scheme and coaching, and of course an understanding of who's playing, I came up with a grade for every NFL team as it relates to their pass defense being favorable or unfavorable.
At minimum, it will give you a potential tiebreaker when debating between two players in your drafts. At most, it's a warning sign to avoid certain players across the league.
If you're reading this, you're on the page that breaks down the PSoS for wideouts. You'll find out about the players who have easy projected schedules, difficult projected schedules, and everyone in between. If you're interested in the methodology behind these numbers, you should read this.
For now, here's a look at how each offense's wide receivers rank in terms of PSoS, with 1 being the easiest and 32 being the toughest. There's a table for the whole season, the first four weeks of the season (who might get off to a hot start?!) and Weeks 15 through 17 (Fantasy playoffs).
Full PSoS rankings by position: QB | RB | WR | TE
You should also benefit from the in-season version of the Projected Strength of Schedule rankings, exclusively on SportsLine. Each week I update the database and reveal which players have favorable or unfavorable matchups down the line. It's a cheat code for trades. Sign up now (or whenever) and use the promo code DAVE for a special deal on your first month, plus you can cancel anytime.
I'll highlight some players after these ranks so please remember to scroll all the way through.
Season-long PSoS for WRs
| ATL | 1 | NYJ | 17 |
| NO | 2 | LV | 18 |
| CHI | 3 | WAS | 19 |
| CAR | 4 | MIN | 20 |
| PHI | 5 | LAR | 21 |
| TB | 6 | KC | 22 |
| LAC | 7 | CLE | 23 |
| SF | 8 | BUF | 24 |
| DAL | 9 | CIN | 25 |
| TEN | 10 | HOU | 26 |
| SEA | 11 | DEN | 27 |
| GB | 12 | BAL | 28 |
| IND | 13 | MIA | 29 |
| NYG | 14 | JAC | 30 |
| ARI | 15 | PIT | 31 |
| DET | 16 | NE | 32 |
Weeks 1-4 PSoS for WRs
| CIN | 1 | GB | 17 |
| WAS | 2 | MIA | 18 |
| DET | 3 | SF | 19 |
| ARI | 4 | CAR | 20 |
| TB | 5 | MIN | 21 |
| BUF | 6 | DEN | 22 |
| CLE | 7 | LV | 23 |
| LAC | 8 | BAL | 24 |
| HOU | 9 | KC | 25 |
| SEA | 10 | NYJ | 26 |
| NO | 11 | IND | 27 |
| PIT | 12 | DAL | 28 |
| CHI | 13 | ATL | 29 |
| PHI | 14 | JAC | 30 |
| LAR | 15 | TEN | 31 |
| NYG | 16 | NE | 32 |
Weeks 15-17 PSoS for WRs
| ATL | 1 | GB | 17 |
| ARI | 2 | NYG | 18 |
| NO | 3 | WAS | 19 |
| CAR | 4 | SEA | 20 |
| DAL | 5 | DEN | 21 |
| LAC | 6 | BUF | 22 |
| IND | 7 | CLE | 23 |
| NE | 8 | LAR | 24 |
| CHI | 9 | MIN | 25 |
| SF | 10 | JAC | 26 |
| PHI | 11 | HOU | 27 |
| LV | 12 | CIN | 28 |
| NYJ | 13 | PIT | 29 |
| TEN | 14 | KC | 30 |
| BAL | 15 | DET | 31 |
| TB | 16 | MIA | 32 |
Biggest winners
- The entire NFC South: Clearly the combination of their matchups against the AFC West and NFC East as well as their own intra-division games pushed their scores up. As a result, the projections suggest top-six schedules for all four teams including Drake London and the Falcons at the top followed closely by Chris Olave and the Saints. Use this as another plus-tiebreaker for Diontae Johnson, who quickly grabbed headlines at the start of training camp.
- D.J. Moore: The Bears really don't have a long tough stretch of secondaries to deal with this season, placing third-best in overall projected schedule for WRs. I like Moore to keep a stronghold on the targets in Chicago from a better thrower in Caleb Williams; he can do it all and is their most complete pass-catcher. This news is good for Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze as well, but they figure to see fewer looks from Williams while still spreading defenses thin.
- Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer: The Chargers are the only team to have projected top-10 schedules overall, in Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 15-17. No one else can claim it. Now we just have to hope the Chargers will utilize the forward pass more than 25 times a game.
Biggest losers
- George Pickens: He's very likely to be the Steelers No. 1 target-getter, but he'll get them against the second-toughest projected schedule for WRs. He does have a pretty decent schedule early on -- maybe that propels him to a solid finish.
- Christian Kirk: The Jaguars are the only team to have bottom-six projected schedules for all areas of the study including the whole season (they're actually third-worst there). This won't help the chances of Brian Thomas Jr. or Gabe Davis either. At least Kirk should rack up a lot of targets.
- Courtland Sutton: Need yet another reason to not trust Sutton (or any Broncos) in Fantasy? Denver has the sixth-worst projected schedule for the season. That's on top of having a rookie quarterback. If Sutton had half as many touchdowns as he did last season he would have averaged as many PPR points as Gabe Davis. He might be right there with him in 2024!
- Anyone in New England: You knew already that there would be some issues for the Patriots passing offense. Landing the worst projected schedule for 2024 obviously does not help.
Draft them, then dump them
- Terry McLaurin: A favorable schedule will help all the Commanders in the passing game early on. Things will get tougher after that, making McLaurin a terrific sell-high candidate if he can string together some big games before taking on the Browns and Ravens in Weeks 5 and 6.
- Amari Cooper: The Browns have a pretty easy schedule in Weeks 2 through 5. Cooper should benefit before all those AFC North showdowns come into focus.
Don't draft them, trade for them
- Michael Pittman: The Colts open the season with tough matchups across the board, but starting in Week 5 things should get easier. If Pittman goes scoreless to begin the year, focus on acquiring him.
- Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins: It goes without saying that their seasons hinge on the arm of Will Levis -- if he struggles then they'll struggle. But if Levis is OK then these receivers have a good enough slate to be effective Fantasy options, most definitely after a very tough start to the season.
