The running back waiver wire is pretty robust for a Fantasy Football playoff weekend. Jerome Ford is expected to lead the Browns with Nick Chubb out, and we're ranking Kendre Miller as a starter in place of Alvin Kamara. Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah both get a boost if Sincere McCormick misses time.
As you may have gathered from this list of names, there are a lot of high-end flex/low-end RB2 types. So the question becomes who we would actually sit for them. My answer would be: No one, you actually feel good about starting.
Ford was set to be the exception to that rule this year, then the Browns went and benched Jameis Winston. Their implied total has already dropped two points, and I expect it will drop more as the week goes on. Still, I would start Ford over committees in Denver, Las Vegas, Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh. I would also start him over Rhamondre Stevenson, D'Andre Swift, and Rachaad White.
The one name I struggle with is Breece Hall. Hall was supposed to be a league-winning running back in the Fantasy playoffs because of a great schedule. Last week, in his first game back, he only had 11 touches for 51 yards and had his day saved by a touchdown. If Hall remains out of practice this week, I'll have him below Ford for sure. If Hall gets in a full practice, I will start him over Ford for sure. If he's limited all week, check into our shows later in the week.
Now, let's get to the rest of the Playoff RB Preview:
Playoff RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play in Week 15 at this time. Here's what it means:
Jerome Ford is a low-end RB2 if Chubb is out
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Kendre Miller is a high-end flex if Kamara is out.
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Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah are both high-end flexes if McCormick is out.
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Numbers to know
- 13.6 -- Zach Charbonnet has scored at least 13.6 PPR Fantasy points in every game Kenneth Walker has missed. But he does not have more than 28 yards rushing in a game Walker has played.
- 37% -- Isiah Pacheco's snap share fell back down to 37% last week. This is a true hot-hand situation; you should try to avoid both Chiefs backs.
- 21 -- Tyrone Tracy has 21 targets in his last four games. That makes up for the touchdowns Devin Singletary is stealing.
- 9.2% -- Jerome Ford's 9.2% explosive rush rate is tied with Breece Hall for 13th best amongst backs with at least 75 rush attempts.
- 40% -- Kenneth Walker leads all running backs with a 40% tackle avoid rate.
- 4.2 -- Bucky Irving is averaging 4.2 yards after contact per rush attempt.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
Ford has a great matchup, should have a good role, and could be a top-12 running back this week. I would like him and the rest of the Browns offense more if Jameis Winston was starting, but Ford is still an RB2. Ford is averaging 5.2 yards per carry thanks to three runs of more than 30 yards. He also had a 13% target share earlier in the season when Chubb was recovering from his torn ACL.
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You need to be more cautious with Kendre Miller than you do Jerome Ford because Alvin Kamara has not been ruled out yet. Miller has turned 19 rush attempts into 78 yards and a touchdown since returning from injured reserve. If he sees even half the targets Kamara sees in a game, then Miller will be a good PPR start. It's safer to view him as a maybe flex.
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If Sincere McCormick misses Week 16, then Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah will both be in play against a Jacksonville defense that has given up 26.3 PPR Fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Our expectation is that Mattison will handle the majority of the team's rush attempts while Abdullah will be the pass-catching back. If the Raiders are playing from behind, Abdullah may be the better PPR play, but it is hard to forecast anyone playing from behind against Jacksonville.
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If Sincere McCormick misses Week 16, then Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah will both be in play against a Jacksonville defense that has given up 26.3 PPR Fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Our expectation is that Mattison will handle the majority of the team's rush attempts while Abdullah will be the pass-catching back. If the Raiders are playing from behind, Abdullah may be the better PPR play, but it is hard to forecast anyone playing from behind against Jacksonville.
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Tony Pollard has been banged up the last couple of weeks. If he were to miss Week 17, Tyjae Spears could have a monster game against Jacksonville in your championship game. Spears has 10 touches in three games this season. He's scored 11.9 or more points in two of those games.
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DFS Plays
James Conner is once again a workhorse running back, and with a matchup against the Panthers, he has an outside chance to be the number one back on this week's slate. Conner has at least 20 touches in each of his last three games. Over that stretch, only Chase Brown and Josh Jacobs have scored more Fantasy points than Conner.
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Hubbard is coming off one of his worst games of the season. But nothing in this game changed the fact that he's still a workhorse with 25-touch potential in a given week. I think Carolina can keep this game competitive and that means good things for Hubbard. He's cheaper than he should be and his roster rate will be lower than it should be as well.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 16 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 16. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.