Fresh off a 94-win season and a disappointing loss in the NL wild-card game, the Braves said good-bye to franchise cornerstone Chipper Jones. The 40-year-old retired despite being the team's best hitter in 2012 (by OPS+), so a new chapter of baseball is beginning in Atlanta. The team remade two-thirds of its outfield and will rely on young part-timers to carry their success over to full-time duty in 2013.
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Probable lineup
1. Andrelton Simmons, SS
2. Jason Heyward, RF
3. Justin Upton, LF
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B
5. B.J. Upton, CF
6. Dan Uggla, 2B
7. Juan Francisco, 3B
8. Gerald Laird, C
Regular catcher Brian McCann is currently working his way back from shoulder surgery and will miss the start of the season. The left-handed hitter figures to return to a prominent middle-of-the-order spot once healthy.
Probable rotation
1. Tim Hudson
2. Kris Medlen
3. Mike Minor
4. Paul Maholm
5. Julio Teheran
Right-hander Brandon Beachy is expected to return from Tommy John surgery at midseason. He'll step right back into the rotation once healthy.
Bullpen construction
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Setup: Jonny Venters, Jordan Walden, Eric O'Flaherty
Notable bench players
C Laird, IF Paul Janish, 3B Chris Johnson, OF Jose Constanza, OF Reed Johnson
Under-the-radar offseason transaction
Losing backup catcher David Ross to free agency is a big blow, especially in the wake of McCann's shoulder injury. The 35-year-old hit .256/.321/.449 with nine homers in 196 plate appearances last summer and managed a 119 OPS+ with 24 homers during his four years in Atlanta. He also threw out 53 of 133 (39.8 percent) attempted basestealers from 2009-12. Ross is the best backup catcher in the business and with McCann sidelined, having him for the first few weeks of the season would have helped the Braves' NL East chances quite a bit.
Fantasy bust: B.J. Upton
"We caution Fantasy owners to temper your excitement with Upton. Like getting a brand new car, there is obviously a lot of excitement regarding Upton joining a new team and league, especially if you play in an NL-only format. But much like when you're shopping for a new car, it's always good to check under the hood for flaws. Upton has his share. Fantasy owners will no doubt remember the second half Upton put together in 2012, hitting 21 homers and slugging .525 after the All-Star break. But he still hit .224 and struck out 86 times in his final 75 games. Not to mention he was motivated for a strong finish because of impending free agency. Upton has his mega deal, so he might be tempted to take his foot off the pedal. Also, keep in mind Upton is transitioning to a new league and will have to learn the tendencies of pitchers in the NL, so he could experience a slow start. Upton never had strong interleague numbers either, batting .256 with a .400 slugging percentage in 94 games. The potential for a letdown can't be overlooked." -- Michael Hurcomb [Full Braves fantasy team preview]
Biggest strength
Despite their flashy outfield additions, the Braves boast baseball's best bullpen. It all starts in the ninth inning with Kimbrel -- the 24-year-old right-hander struck out 116 of 231 batters faced last year (50.2 percent) and pitched to a 1.01 ERA in 62 2/3 innings. Venters, 27, and O'Flaherty, 28, are two of the game's top lefty relievers, pitching to 2.23 and 1.59 ERAs since 2010, respectively. GM Frank Wren added a needed righty setup man in Walden this winter, and he owns a 3.06 ERA in parts of three big league seasons now. Depth righty Cristhian Martinez has quietly pitched to a 3.63 ERA over the last two years. Manager Fredi Gonzalez has a great mix of righties and lefties, strikeout pitchers and ground ball guys.
Biggest weakness
I feel like this has flown under the radar a bit, but there are some question marks in that rotation. Veterans Hudson and Maholm are known quantities, but Teheran is a total question mark. The 22-year-old pitched to a 5.08 ERA with 18 homers allowed in 131 innings last season, and that was in Triple-A. Medlen was fantastic last year, but it would be foolish to expect him to go undefeated with a sub-1.00 ERA (like he did as a starter last year) again in 2013. Minor was awful through May (6.98) but quietly effective the rest of the way (2.74 ERA).
The Braves used right-hander Randall Delgado (4.37 ERA in 2012) to acquire Upton and Beachy (2.00 ERA in 13 starts) is due back at midseason, so that's two arms currently unavailable to them. I think they should be all over Kyle Lohse, who would a) give Teheran more time in Triple-A; and b) only cost a second round draft pick -- the Braves surrendered their first-rounder to sign Upton. Atlanta has a good rotation but compared to its lineup and bullpen, it stands out as a weakness.
Best-case scenario
The Braves have the talent to not only make the postseason, but win the NL East and make a serious run at the World Series. They would need Teheran to step forward and Medlen to continue establishing himself as a frontline starter, but it's doable. Outside of the win-loss record, the team is clearly banking on the Upton brothers pushing each other to their considerable potential. If that actually happens, forget it. Atlanta's offense would be one of the two or three best in baseball now and in the future.
Worst-case scenario
The worst-case scenario involves getting less than expected from the rotation and the Uptons. McCann's shoulder could continue to bark and Kimbrel's supbar spring -- four runs (three earned) with more walks (five) than strikeouts (three) in four innings -- could be an indication he is more Derrick Turnbow than Jonathan Papelbon when it comes to closer staying power. I don't think that's the case, but hey, we're talking worse-case scenario here. Even if everything goes wrong, it's hard to see Atlanta falling below third place in the division.
Most likely scenario
The Braves appear to be a very clear second-place team behind the Nationals and ahead of the Phillies in the NL East. They're plenty good enough to win one of the two wild card spots and I think it would be a big surprise if they missed the postseason altogether. There is no real glaring "fatal flaw" type of weakness, and good all-around teams tend to find themselves in the playoffs.
Atlanta has the best outfield in baseball and that's even if the Uptons don't push each other to be even better. Its bullpen is arguably the best in the game and even if Teheran is a question mark as the fifth starter, the 1-4 guys are solid. The Braves are very good and will be a force to be reckoned with in 2013.
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