There are three players tied for the MLB lead in home runs (12) this season, but only Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is in action during the Thursday MLB schedule. Schwarber has homered in three of his last five games and is coming off back-to-back multi-hit performances. He will face Rays starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot, who has already allowed eight homers this season. Schwarber is +230 (risk $100 to win $230) to go yard in the latest MLB home run odds at Caesars Sportsbook for Thursday. Schwarber's teammate, Trea Turner, recorded his second home run of the season yesterday and is +380 to hit a homer tonight.
Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani (+187) is the only player with shorter home run odds than Schwarber on Thursday. Which players should you back with your Thursday MLB home run bets? Even with MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in four of the last six days and is up 31.55 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 30 days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +10250 odds and would pay out $512.50 on a $5 bet at FanDuel.
Austin Riley, Braves (+350)
Riley has been one of the league's premier power hitters for several years, hitting 30-plus homers in three of the last four seasons. He is on pace to hit that number again this season, as he has eight home runs after going yard twice against the Dodgers on Sunday. Riley has a .966 OPS at home and just a .695 OPS on the road, so he will be happy to be at Truist Park on Thursday. He is facing Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has given up 40 of 41 career homers to right-handed batters.
"This is a favorable matchup for Riley and when you factor in the weather which is supposed to be hitter friendly, anything above +300 is a good price for Riley to hit a HR tonight," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. FanDuel is offering the best Austin Riley home run odds, and you can get up to $200 in bonus bets with a $5 winning bet here.
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+400)
Harper is another National League East hitter who has consistently been hitting bombs in his career, and he just hit his sixth of the season on Sunday against Arizona. The 32-year-old is facing Pepiot, who has gone two straight starts without allowing a homer. However, he gave up seven in his three starts before that, which all came at the Rays' temporary park.
"Bryce Harper has always hit the ball well against right-handed pitchers, and while Pepiot is actually better against left-handed bats because his offspeed pitches play much better than his fastball, this is still a good matchup for Harper who raked against change-ups last season," Fetner said. The model sets Harper's line at +350, so you're getting value here with FanDuel offering +400.
Anthony Santander, Blue Jays (+400)
Santander homered on Tuesday against the Angels, giving him five long balls this season. He is only batting .188, but he has five hits in his last four games. The 30-year-old crushed 44 homers in 2024, and all five of his homers this season have come against right-handed pitchers. This line would be much shorter last year, so the data team thinks this is an excellent spot to jump on board before his number shortens. "We would set the line at around +380, but when you factor in the weather being hitter friendly, there is likely even more value," Fetner said.
The model sees fare value at this price, which you can find at BetMGM Sportsbook. You can also score up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM if your first bet loses here.
More MLB picks for Thursday
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 93-48 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine's Jason La Canfora is 10-5 over his last 15 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Thursday.
