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Zack Wheeler has apparently circled his retirement date on the calendar. The Phillies ace plans to retire when his current contract is up after the 2027 season, he confirmed to The Athletic. Yes, that's 2 ½ seasons away, but it's still enough to catch the eyes of any baseball fan. Wheeler is still in the middle of his excellent prime and while things could go south quickly, it sure doesn't seem like they will.

"That's the plan," he said, even if he stays at the top of his game. "It'll be easy to walk away."

This is certainly something that will become a bigger talking point as we get closer to the end of the 2027 season, but those of us heavily invested in things like the Hall of Fame have now perked up with interest. 

Wheeler is 35 years old and retiring after an age-37 season wouldn't really be all that odd. He just hasn't yet hit his decline phase so some people might think he feels younger than 35. He finished second in Cy Young voting last season after finishing sixth in 2023. He also was the runner-up in 2021, so he's stacking some high-prime seasons. 

In all, Wheeler is 109-72 in his career with a 3.31 ERA (121 ERA+), 1.14 WHIP and 1,726 strikeouts in 1,660 ⅔ innings. He's appeared in 12 postseason games, pitching to a 2.18 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with 77 strikeouts in 70 ⅓ innings. 

In terms of the Hall of Fame, those counting numbers are short and with no Cy Youngs, this case falls below where we'd typically set the bar. We could get past the lack of, say, 2,000 strikeouts and innings pitched if there were two or three Cy Youngs, but there aren't just yet. 

Looking at the statistical similars, the top five for Wheeler right now are Aaron Nola, Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg, Michael Wacha and Gary Nolan. No Hall of Famers are in the top 10. In JAWS, Wheeler sits 184th. There are 67 Hall of Fame starting pitchers. Wheeler is one spot in front of Catfish Hunter, but otherwise surrounded here by the likes of Al Leiter, David Price, Jake Peavy and Kluber. Great pitchers, all, but this still is short of the Hall.

I do think Wheeler can get to a point to have a strong Hall of Fame case, though, assuming he can avoid injury and then retires as he plans to after 2027. 

He's just about 340 innings away from 2,000. He has averaged 190 innings per season since the truncated 2020 campaign. Given the current strikeout rate, he'll surpass 2,000 strikeouts before he gets there in innings and it feels pretty likely he gets to that benchmark in both categories. The wins probably look very light to older generations of baseball fans, but win totals are tumbling downhill these days with the different ways pitchers are used. 

I'd like to take a look here at Félix Hernández. He debuted on the ballot last winter and got more than 20% of the vote. There's a chance he'll gain steam and eventually make the Hall of Fame. 

He retired with 169 wins, 2,729 ⅔ innings and 2,524 strikeouts. It doesn't seem like Wheeler can get to those numbers. King Félix also won a Cy Young. Wheeler could win one or even two Cy Youngs, though, right? He might need to. Wheeler does have better rate stats than Hernández too, at 3.31 ERA, 121 ERA+ and 1.14 WHIP compared to 3.42, 117 and 1.21, respectively. Hernández's 49.9 WAR tops Wheeler's 38.0, but Wheeler could get there by the end of 2027 and probably even top that. He posted 6.1 last season and is at 2.8 so far this year. The math is there.

Still, the way things are shaping up right now, Wheeler's Hall of Fame case through age 37 might well be pretty darn close to Hernández's case and that yielded 20.6% of the vote. 

This is to say that it looks like Wheeler has a chance at the Hall of Fame with a decent foundation in place, but he needs to do some great work through his age-37 season. Grabbing a Cy Young and a World Series MVP would greatly help matters, too. 

It appears to be an uphill battle, but it's also one that Wheeler can win.