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USATSI

At 6:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, the NCAA Tournament selection committee had its second and final top 16 reveal of the year. 

These reveals provide valuable insights into how the committee views the nation's best teams. In a hectic season, the top 16 reveal represents clarity.

So, naturally, four of the top 12 teams lost by the end of the night.

One of the biggest surprises from the reveal was South Carolina falling to a No. 2 seed as the fifth-ranked team overall. 

The Gamecocks have been a No. 1 seed in four straight NCAA Tournaments and eight of the last 10. They entered Thursday tied with Texas for the most Quad-1 wins in the country (11), but clearly the margin of their defeat against UConn was a major data point, as Dawn Staley's team was dropped below both USC and Notre Dame.

However, after Notre Dame fell at home to Florida State, it's likely South Carolina is back on the No. 1 line. USC should be equally delighted to put a bit of room between themselves and the Irish, who won their head-to-head meeting earlier in the season.

With only UCLA and Texas appearing to be safely No. 1 seeds, perhaps UConn has a fighting chance at one of those remaining two spots after all. It's worth mentioning they came in at No. 6 overall in the reveal, ahead of LSU even before the Tigers' overtime loss at Alabama.

UConn would certainly have to win the Big East Tournament, and even then it seems unlikely. But if UCLA and Texas win their respective conference tournaments, that means guaranteed losses for USC and South Carolina that could make things interesting.

It's also notable Notre Dame faces a tough challenge against Louisville in their regular-season finale and will likely enter the ACC Tournament as the league's No. 2 seed behind NC State.

Oh, would you look at the date -- we're just hours away from March! Each of the power conferences end regular season play this weekend, meaning we're officially in the final push to Selection Sunday.

Want a No. 1 seed? Looking to host? Just trying to guarantee a spot in the field. The time is now, my friends. The ball's in your court.

No. 1 seeds

UCLA (27-1, 16-1 Big Ten): NET 5, SOS 15

UCLA should be just about guaranteed a No. 1 seed at this point, but the Bruins have a chance to make it official and get revenge on their rival USC on Saturday.

The Bruins have won 10 straight home games against ranked teams dating back to 2023, including a 15-point win over South Carolina this past November. The mission will be simple: stop JuJu Watkins from having another all-time performance.

*Texas (28-2, 14-1 SEC): NET 3, SOS 3

There are only two power conference teams in the country with an active winning streak of more than six games, and both hail from the Lone Star State. Baylor has won nine straight, while Texas has won 12 in a row.

Ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll for the first time since 2004, the Longhorns can lock up their second consecutive NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed on Sunday with a home win against a sub-.500 Florida team.

*USC (25-2, 16-1 Big Ten): NET 6, SOS 11

Just four teams in the country have at least nine Quad-1 wins this season, and they're all No. 1 seeds in these projections. In fact, no other team has more than six.

That would suggest the No. 1 seeds are fairly definitive, but the committee has shown us that isn't the case. USC would remain a No. 1 seed with a loss against UCLA, but there would be a lot more pressure on the Trojans in the Big Ten Tournament.

South Carolina (26-3, 14-1 SEC): NET 2, SOS 1

One could still reasonably argue South Carolina has the best overall resume in the nation. Yes, the Gamecocks have three losses. But they also have a ridiculous nine wins against teams in the top 20 of the NET rankings. UCLA, for example, has three.

South Carolina's No. 1 seed hopes may still come down to winning the SEC Tournament, making it even crazier the top seed in that event might come down to a literal coin flip with Texas.

No. 2 seeds

Notre Dame (24-4, 15-2 ACC): NET 4, SOS 6

Last season, Notre Dame had an insane run up to Selection Sunday, winning five straight games against AP Top 25 teams from Leap Day through the ACC Tournament. Can the Irish rebound from back-to-back losses to have a similar run this time around?

The path starts against Louisville, a team Notre Dame has won three straight against, including an 18-point win on Feb. 2 when Hannah Hidalgo led the way with 34 points.

*UConn (27-3, 17-0 Big East): NET 1, SOS 38

The Huskies clinched a 12th straight outright conference regular-season title on Thursday with a 72-53 win over Creighton, their closest Big East competition.

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UConn is 17-0 in Big East play, winning those games by an average of 34.1 points per game. At home, they've combined to beat eight opponents by 317 points across 320 minutes of game action. Marquette needs a win at UConn on Sunday to stay in the at-large conversation. Good luck.

LSU (27-3, 12-3 SEC): NET 10, SOS 36

Flau'jae Johnson scored just six points on 2 of 12 shooting in LSU's overtime loss at Alabama, her fewest in a game since December 2023. She showed leadership on X by taking responsibility for the loss, but LSU's free throw shooting was just as costly. 

In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Tigers shot just 5 of 11 from the line. Still, there's no shame in losing to Alabama, and LSU remains firmly a No. 2 seed.

*NC State (23-5, 15-2 ACC): NET 19, SOS 13

With just three games left on the ACC schedule, NC State was two games out of first place in the conference. They halved the deficit in a game-of-the-year contender, beating then-No. 1 Notre Dame at home in double overtime.

Now, following another win plus an Irish loss against Florida State, the Wolfpack just need to beat bottom-dweller SMU for the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. Along with 2021-22, this would be NC State's second regular-season title in the last 35 seasons.

No. 3 seeds

*TCU (27-3, 15-2 Big 12): NET 9, SOS 61

I thought TCU might slide into the final No. 2 seed in the top 16 reveal, but NC State's win over Notre Dame is simply too strong. The Horned Frogs travel to Baylor with everything on the line -- the winner is the Big 12 regular-season champion.

It's one of two winner-take-all matchups in a power conference this weekend, along with USC vs. UCLA. TCU has already won a program-record 27 games and finished undefeated at home for the second time in school history.

Duke (22-7, 13-4 ACC): NET 7, SOS 12

Not only are Duke and North Carolina among the biggest rivals in the sport, but they also came in at No. 10 and No. 11 in the top 16 reveal. UNC was ahead at the time, but following Duke's win on Thursday, the teams swap places, having both won at home in this season's series.

Both schools are part of a four-way tie for third in the ACC at 13-4. Duke plays another one of those teams in Florida State to close out the regular season.

North Carolina (25-5, 13-4 ACC): NET 18, SOS 31

UNC was 9-0 on the road this season entering its game against Duke, but instead of completing the rare feat of an undefeated season on the road, it suffered its largest loss of the season (15 points).

With a 10-5 record among Quads 1-2, North Carolina should lock up a hosting position Sunday against Virginia, which is 0-6 against ranked teams this season.

Oklahoma (22-6, 10-5 SEC): NET 14, SOS 16

The Sooners have somewhat quietly strung together six straight victories ahead of their regular-season finale against Alabama. Both teams are in a similar NCAA Tournament position, but unfortunately neither can grab a double-bye in the SEC Tournament.

Both teams are a game behind fourth-place Kentucky, but the Wildcats beat both of them during the regular season. Still, a seventh Quad-1 win for Oklahoma would be a major resume addition.

No. 4 seeds

Kentucky (22-5, 11-4 SEC): NET 20, SOS 27

Records were falling left and right for Kentucky in its 82-58 win over Tennessee on Thursday. The 24-point margin was the school's largest ever against the Lady Vols, but the real story was Clara Strack.

The sophomore center finished a perfect 11 of 11 from the field (a school record for a single game) while also setting Kentucky's single-season record for blocked shots (67).

Tennessee (21-7, 8-7 SEC): NET 12, SOS 2

Despite being just a game above .500 in conference play, Tennessee's overall resume still has it positioned as a No. 4 seed and one of seven SEC teams currently projected to host in the NCAA Tournament.

The Lady Vols have no losses outside of the NET top 25 and six Quad-1 wins, which, again, trails only the No. 1 seeds. It's been a brutal schedule, but Tennessee has managed it just fine.

Alabama (23-6, 10-5 SEC): NET 15, SOS 30

The final two spots in the top 16 reveal went to Kansas State and Ohio State. However, Alabama and Maryland take those spots here following Quad-1 wins on Thursday.

Alabama's win over LSU is its biggest of the season and required grit after two of the team's starting guards fouled out. The Tide have won six of seven and travel to Oklahoma for a win that can strengthen its top 16 case.

Maryland (22-6, 12-5 Big Ten): NET 26, SOS 18

Currently sitting fourth in the Big Ten standings, Maryland can clinch a double-bye in its conference tournament with a Saturday win against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have already locked up their double-bye, but are also fighting Maryland for hosting position in the NCAA Tournament. 

It's a high-stakes meeting, and Ohio State has won three of the last four in the series overall. If Maryland can't seal the deal, they risk falling to the conference No. 5 seed behind Illinois.

No. 5 seeds

Kansas State (25-5, 13-4 Big 12): NET 8, SOS 69

Ohio State (24-4, 13-4 Big Ten): NET 17, SOS 45

Oklahoma State (23-5, 13-4 Big 12): NET 25, SOS 68

Baylor (25-5, 15-2 Big 12): NET 16, SOS 63

No. 6 seeds

Utah (21-7, 12-5 Big 12): NET 22, SOS 44

California (23-7, 11-6 ACC): NET 39, SOS 50

Creighton (23-5, 15-2 Big East): NET 31, SOS 70

Ole Miss (18-9, 9-6 SEC): NET 13, SOS 7

No. 7 seeds

Iowa (19-9, 9-8 Big Ten): NET 27, SOS 9

Florida State (23-6, 13-4 ACC): NET 23, SOS 58

Michigan State (20-8, 10-7 Big Ten): NET 21, SOS 25

West Virginia (22-6, 12-5 Big 12): NET 11, SOS 64

No. 8 seeds

Illinois (21-7, 11-6 Big Ten): NET 30, SOS 39

Louisville (20-8, 13-4 ACC): NET 36, SOS 14

Michigan (19-9, 10-7 Big Ten): NET 28, SOS 20

Georgia Tech (21-8, 9-8 ACC): NET 29, SOS 55

No. 9 seeds

Vanderbilt (20-9, 7-8 SEC): NET 24, SOS 22

Oregon (19-9, 10-7 Big Ten): NET 38, SOS 19

Indiana (17-11, 9-8 Big Ten): NET 40, SOS 10

*Richmond (25-5, 16-1 Atlantic 10): NET 33, SOS 83

No. 10 seeds

*South Dakota State (25-3, 15-0 Summit): NET 44, SOS 87

Nebraska (18-10, 9-8 Big Ten): NET 41, SOS 24

Harvard (20-3, 9-2 Ivy): NET 34, SOS 118

Mississippi State (19-10, 6-9 SEC): NET 32, SOS 23

No. 11 seeds

Iowa State (20-10, 11-6 Big 12): NET 37, SOS 42

*Columbia (19-5, 10-1 Ivy): NET 42, SOS 82

*James Madison (26-4, 17-0 Sun Belt): NET 54, SOS 98

Colorado (18-10, 9-8 Big 12): NET 56, SOS 49

Washington (17-12, 8-9 Big Ten): NET 43, SOS 28

Virginia Tech (17-11, 8-9 ACC): NET 48, SOS 52

No. 12 seeds

*UNLV (23-5, 15-1 MWC): NET 45, SOS 139

*Montana State (26-2, 16-0 Big Sky): NET 52, SOS 241

*Grand Canyon (26-2, 13-0 WAC): NET 63, SOS 260

*Fairfield (23-3, 17-0 MAAC): NET 47, SOS 222

No. 13 seeds

*Ball State (21-7, 13-2 MAC): NET 68, SOS 99

*Middle Tennessee (22-6, 14-1 CUSA): NET 51, SOS 110

*Florida Gulf Coast (26-3, 17-0 ASUN): NET 64, SOS 298

*Missouri State (22-6, 14-3 MVC): NET 69, SOS 171

No. 14 seeds

*UTSA (24-3, 15-1 AAC): NET 72, SOS 271

*Norfolk State (24-4, 11-0 MEAC): NET 77, SOS 141

*Green Bay (25-5, 18-1 Horizon): NET 76, SOS 190

*Portland (27-3, 16-3 WCC): NET 79, SOS 348

No. 15 seeds

*Southeast Louisiana (25-3, 19-0 Southland): NET 94, SOS 319

*Lehigh (23-5, 14-2 Patriot): NET 99, SOS 315

*Albany (23-5, 13-2 America East): NET 115, SOS 283

*Charleston (19-6, 10-4 CAA): NET 111, SOS 353

No. 16 seeds

*Hawai'i (20-7, 14-3 Big West): NET 134, SOS 267

*Fairleigh Dickinson (24-3, 14-0 NEC): NET 171, SOS 295

*Tennessee Tech (23-5, 17-2 OVC): NET 132, SOS 327

*UNC Greensboro (21-6, 12-1 SoCon): NET 155, SOS 255

*High Point (18-11, 13-3 Big South): NET 203, SOS 320

*Southern (15-13, 13-2 SWAC): NET 187, SOS 77

Last Four In

Iowa State (20-10, 11-6 Big 12): NET 37, SOS 42

Colorado (18-10, 9-8 Big 12): NET 56, SOS 49

Washington (17-12, 8-9 Big Ten): NET 43, SOS 28

Virginia Tech (17-11, 8-9 ACC): NET 48, SOS 52

First Four Out

Princeton (18-6, 9-2 Ivy): NET 50, SOS 90

Minnesota (20-9, 8-9 Big Ten): NET 35, SOS 72

Arizona (18-12, 9-8 Big 12): NET 58, SOS 59

Seton Hall (20-8, 12-5 Big East): NET 66, SOS 73