If you are the type of Fantasy player who has to draft a quarterback early then this story isn't for you. And last year probably wasn't for you either.
As we saw in 2019, waiting on a quarterback was the best way to build your Fantasy team. We've been talking about this for years, but 2019 put this theory on steroids.
Depending on the Average Draft Position data you look at -- we'll use Fantasy Football Calculator for this exercise -- some of the quarterbacks selected after pick No. 100 overall included Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. Those quarterbacks all finished in the top 10 last year in leagues with six points for passing touchdowns (Prescott was No. 2, Winston was No. 5, Allen was No. 9 and Murray was No. 10).
Our job, as always, is to find the next quarterback or group of quarterbacks to accomplish that goal this season. So here we are.
Using the CBS Sports ADP for 2020, I'm going to break down my 10 favorite quarterbacks being drafted after pick No. 100 overall, according to my rankings. These are most of the quarterbacks I'll be waiting for on Draft Day who could produce significant results by the end of the season.
Stafford isn't sexy, and Fantasy managers don't want to target him on Draft Day. But that could be a mistake, and hopefully he builds off what he accomplished in eight games in 2019 before being shut down with a back injury. In half a season, Stafford had 2,499 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. Over 16 games, that puts him at the second-best numbers of his career (4,998 passing yards, 38 touchdowns and 10 interceptions), and he was the No. 3 quarterback in Fantasy points per game at 24.9. Stafford has a solid receiving corps led by Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson, and Detroit gave him another weapon out of the backfield with rookie D'Andre Swift joining Kerryon Johnson. Stafford, if healthy, could challenge for 5,000 passing yards again, and those kinds of quarterbacks are rare. Just wait for him on Draft Day with his ADP at a silly 120.6 overall (QB19), and you should enjoy the results.
When Jones was on last year, he was really on, scoring at least 35 Fantasy points in four of 12 starts. But he also had six games with 14 Fantasy points or less, and that ratio has to change if he's going to become a starting option in all leagues. There are two reasons to like Jones this year. The first is the weapons around him with Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate. That's a stellar group with plenty of upside. The other reason to like Jones is his rushing ability, which might have gone unnoticed last year. He was on pace for 372 rushing yards over 16 games, which would have been good for fifth among quarterbacks in 2019. If he can increase that total and become a more consistent producer -- and cut down on the turnovers (23) -- we could be looking at a steal at his ADP of 107.4 overall as the No. 16 quarterback off the board.
He only appeared in two games last season because of an elbow injury, which required season-ending surgery in September. But he seems to be ready to go in his comeback effort after posting a video of himself working out in May. He's 38, and any significant injury at his age is difficult to recover from. But the last time we saw him in a full season in 2018 he was the No. 3 Fantasy quarterback with 5,129 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, along with three rushing scores. Granted, that was with Antonio Brown on the Steelers, but I'm excited for this receiving corps with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and James Washington leading the way, as well as newcomers in Chase Claypool and Eric Ebron. Could Roethlisberger finish as a top-three Fantasy quarterback again? Probably not. But a top-10 finish for a guy you're drafting at 146.9 overall based on his ADP (QB24) is doable, and I'm buying plenty of stock in Roethlisberger this year.
The last time we saw Newton play in 2019 with the Panthers, he was clearly not 100 percent while dealing with shoulder and foot injuries. He appeared in just two games and scored a combined 16 Fantasy points. But in 2018, he averaged 23.5 Fantasy points per game in 14 outings, and hopefully that guy shows up again this season with the Patriots. He's 31, but the hope is he'll still run enough to help his floor. Remember, Newton has rushed for at least 488 yards and four touchdowns in seven of nine seasons in his career. The Patriots aren't going to make him play like Tom Brady, and we'll see how he does meshing with Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu and James White, among others. The best part about Newton is you can draft him with a late-round pick at 148.4 overall (QB26), likely as a second quarterback, and he could deliver a big reward if healthy.
Goff went from the No. 6 quarterback in 2018 to the No. 15 quarterback last year. So what changed? His offensive line regressed, and the Rams struggled to run the ball. He also had Brandin Cooks miss time due to injury, and all of those issues could be a concern again, especially with Todd Gurley and Cooks no longer on the roster. But if you take out four horrific games for Goff last season against some of the top defenses (San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Baltimore) where he combined for 12 Fantasy points, he wasn't awful the rest of the year. In those other 12 outings, Goff averaged 22.3 Fantasy points per game, including 23 points at San Francisco in Week 16. I'm hopeful for Cam Akers and potentially Darrell Henderson to be quality replacements for Gurley, but the Rams passing attack might have to carry this offense. Goff offers plenty of rebound potential at a reduced price at 107.1 overall as the No. 15 quarterback selected.
Minshew is the guy for the Jaguars this year. And he played well at times in his rookie campaign in 2019, scoring at least 20 Fantasy points in eight of 14 appearances. He averaged a respectable 19.3 Fantasy points per game, and he was fifth among quarterbacks with 344 rushing yards. The Jaguars could be chasing points every game based on their rebuilding defense, and Minshew got new weapons to use with rookie receiver Laviska Shenault, running back Chris Thompson and tight end Tyler Eifert. Along with D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook and Leonard Fournette, Minshew should have enough talent around him to help to make him a surprise starter in all leagues. If he goes from 19.3 Fantasy points per game to 20.3 points then he's on the cusp of being a starter in 2019 already. And he's a free space on Draft Day since you can get him with your final selection, even after taking a DST and kicker. His ADP is 168.0 overall as the No. 29 quarterback.
If we were guaranteed to get Taylor as the Chargers' starter for close to 16 games, I would have him ranked near my top 12. He has that kind of upside. The talent on the Chargers' roster is great with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler, and the offensive line should be much improved with offseason additions of Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga. Taylor also has proven he can run the ball with two seasons on his resume of at least 568 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. But, as we know, the Chargers have Justin Herbert waiting as their quarterback of the future after selecting him at No. 6 overall in the NFL Draft. And Herbert could start at any point in the season, which is why you're only drafting Taylor with a late-round flier in all Fantasy leagues (his ADP is 147.3 overall as QB25). But should the Chargers surprise us and stick with Taylor, he's going to be a popular waiver-wire addition this year in all formats.
Tannehill should probably be higher on this list after the way he played last year. During his 10 starts for the Titans in the regular season, he averaged 25.5 Fantasy points per game. Only Lamar Jackson at 32.5 points was better. He also had just one game under 21 Fantasy points over that span. Now, the reason Tannehill is down here -- and his ADP is QB20 at 128.7 overall -- is there's likely regression coming in 2020. He threw a touchdown every 13 pass attempts, and he scored 2.6 total touchdowns a game as a starter. I don't have a problem with Tannehill as a No. 2 quarterback, but I'm not going to draft him as a starter in a one-quarterback league unless it's a deeper format. However, the further he falls on Draft Day, the better bargain he becomes.
The Broncos have given Lock plenty of tools to succeed this year, and hopefully he takes advantage of this opportunity. Along with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, the Broncos drafted Jerry Jeudy in Round 1 of the NFL Draft and K.J. Hamler in Round 2, as well as signed Melvin Gordon as a free agent. This could be an explosive receiving corps, and Lock could emerge as a surprise Fantasy starter in all leagues. His ADP is 139.8 overall as the No. 22 quarterback off the board, and he could be a bargain there. Now, Lock needs to improve from last year. He started the final five games in Denver as a rookie in 2019, but he scored more than 16 Fantasy points just once. Lock still has to prove himself first before Fantasy managers in one-quarterback leagues can trust him. But if he starts out the season playing well, he should be a popular waiver-wire addition.
In five starts for an injured Drew Brees (thumb) last year as the backup in New Orleans, Bridgewater handled himself well, scoring at least 20 Fantasy points in three of those outings. It's part of the reason he got this opportunity to start for the Panthers this year, and hopefully this is Bridgewater's time to shine. He inherits a quality receiving corps with D.J. Moore, Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel and Ian Thomas. And with Joe Brady calling plays, this should be a quality system to help Bridgewater succeed. I expect Carolina to be trailing in most games, meaning Bridgewater could be throwing a lot. He's a good option in two-quarterback leagues and Superflex formats, especially at his ADP of 168.7 overall as QB30.
