If you've had Joe Mixon on your roster all season, I'm sure you haven't spent very much time wondering whether you are starting him. He's currently RB3 on the season, averaging 19.2 PPR FPPG. Saquon Barkley and Jaymyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley are the only running backs who have scored more Fantasy points per game than Mixon this season. These are not backs you consider benching. And yet...
Mixon has had a brutal schedule to end the season, and he's really struggled. Last week, he scored 8.1 Fantasy points against the Chiefs, who have allowed the fewest Fantasy points to running backs this season. In Week 15, he scored 10.3 against the Dolphins. In Week 13, he scored 9.5 against the Titans. In Week 17, he faces the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas. They have held running backs to a league-low 3.47 yards per carry this year.
All of that is to say, I am sure some of you are considering benching Mixon. I am not. If I can offer a glimmer of hope, it is that the Ravens are giving up 42 yards per game to running backs through the air. That's the third-highest mark in the league. Mixon already has five games this season with at least 30 receiving yards and has at least four catches in three of his last four games. Expect Mixon to be active through the air against the Ravens and to be a top-15 running back, even if he's inefficient as a rusher.
Now, let's get to the rest of the Week 17 RB Preview:
Zach Charbonnet is a must-start running back if Walker is out
RB Preview
Numbers to know
40% -- Kendre Miller only had a 40% rush share in his first game without Alvin Kamara. He's a flex at best.
4 -- Jerome Ford has four rushed of more than 60 yards in his three-year career. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are the only other backs with more than three since Ford entered the league. Ten teams have zero such runs in the last three years.
3.41 -- Joe Mixon is averaging 3.41 yards per carry since Week 10.
18 -- Tyrone Tracy has 18 targets in his last three games.
35% -- Isiah Pacheco's 35% snap share in Week 16 was his lowest of the season. If you must start a Chiefs back, start Kareem Hunt.
22.15 -- Zach Charbonnet is averaging 22.15 PPR FPPG in his four starts.
Abdullah has another great matchup against the Saints, and in full PPR leagues, both he and Alexander Mattison are borderline number two running backs. Abdullah has four games with at least 10 touches this season, and he has averaged 15.9 PPR FPPG in those games. The Saints allowed three different Packers running backs to score in Week 16 and have now given up 15 touchdowns to the position in their last 10 games.
The Cardinals running back room is a mess heading into Week 17, and they play on Saturday night, so the timing of all this is a little tricky as well. If James Conner plays, you start him. If Conner is out, our hope is that Trey Benson is back, and Benson would be a borderline number two running back. If both Conner and Benson are out, then Michael Carter is a high-end flex. Of course, when waivers run on Tuesday night, we aren't going to know who is going to be healthy on Saturday, so I am attempting to add both Benson and Carter.
The Cardinals running back room is a mess heading into Week 17, and they play on Saturday night, so the timing of all this is a little tricky as well. If James Conner plays, you start him. If Conner is out, our hope is that Trey Benson is back, and Benson would be a borderline number two running back. If both Conner and Benson are out, then Michael Carter is a high-end flex. Of course, when waivers run on Tuesday night, we aren't going to know who is going to be healthy on Saturday, so I am attempting to add both Benson and Carter.
The Sunday slate is a bit of a short slate, with six games happening Wednesday through Saturday. On shorter slates, I prefer the stars and scrubs approach, and there has been no bigger star at running back than Saquon Barkley. Barkley projects for three more Fantasy points than any other player on the main slate, regardless of position.
Last week, we went with Chuba Hubbard, coming off one of his worst games of the season, as the top contrarian play. We'll follow that model again with Brian Robinson, who has been in a funk. Robinson is a home favorite against a team starting a rookie QB. He could easily see 20 touches and score multiple touchdowns in this game. He'll win people tournaments if he does.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 17 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 17. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
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