Welcome to the one week of the season where Andy Reid is pretty much a lock to win.
If there's one stat that's reached mythological proportions in the NFL, it's Reid's record when his team is coming off of a bye week. Basically, you should never bet against Reid when he's coming off a bye. During his 18 years as a head coach, Reid's teams have gone a ridiculous 16-2 after taking a week off, and that might be one reason why oddsmakers have made the Chiefs the biggest road favorite in franchise history.
For Kansas City's game against the Giants this week, the Chiefs have opened as a 13.5 point favorite. According to Pro Football Reference, that tops the Chiefs' previous road high, which was set in 1992, when they opened as a 12.5-point favorite in a game at Seattle.
Of course, Reid's post-bye record isn't the only reason the Chiefs are a big favorite this week. The other reason is that they're playing the Giants, who are starting to play like they've given up on the season. The Giants got steamrolled in Week 10 by a 49ers team that went into the game with an 0-9 record.
As for Reid, the Chiefs' coach is 3-1 both straight up and ATS coming off a bye since being hired by Kansas City in 2013. Of course, that doesn't mean the Chiefs are a lock to cover -- or even win -- and that's because the Chiefs have never beaten the Giants on the road (0-6 all-time).
Let's check out the rest of the early odds.
NFL Week 11 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Titans (6-3) at Steelers (7-2), Thursday
Opening line: Steelers, -6.5 points
The Steelers have basically been unbeatable in primetime games over the past two years. Since Week 5 of 2015, the Steelers are 6-0 both straight up and ATS in night games. Although the Steelers have been unbeatable in primetime, one thing they haven't been able to do this year is cover a large spread. Since the beginning of the season, the Steelers are just 1-4 ATS when favored by six or more points. As for the Titans, since drafting Marcus Mariota in 2015, they've been the NFL's worst team at covering on the road. At 6-14 ATS, they're tied with the Browns for the worst road ATS mark over the span. The Titans might be one of the hottest teams in the NFL with four straight wins, but they're just 1-2-1 ATS in those four games. One thing to watch for in this game will be the health of Mariota. Titans coach Mike Mularkey admitted on Sunday that Mariota banged up his left shoulder near the end of Tennessee's win over the Bengals.
Lions (5-4) at Bears (3-6)
Opening line: Lions, -3 points
The Lions have absolutely dominated this series over the past four years. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, Detroit is 7-1 against the Bears, although they're just 4-4 ATS against Chicago in the span. The Lions have been one of the safest bets on the road this year, going 3-1 both straight up and ATS. Of course, that doesn't mean you should bet against the Bears, who have been regularly covering the spread in home games. Although they're just 2-3 at home this season, they're 4-1 ATS.
Jaguars (6-3) at Browns (0-9)
Opening line: Jaguars, -7.5 points
It's been a long time since we've seen the Jaguars favored by more than a touchdown over anyone and all it took was a game against the 0-9 Browns. The last time the Jaguars were favored by seven or more points came in 2009 when it happened a total of three times. Betting against the Browns has been one of the safest gambling plays in the NFL this year. The Browns are just 2-7 ATS, which is the worst mark of any team in the league. The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in road games this season, which is tied for the second best mark in the NFL.
Ravens (4-5) at Packers (5-4)
Opening line: Ravens, -3 points
When it comes to playing NFC teams, the Ravens have had one of the ugliest records in the NFL over the past few years. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Ravens are just 2-8 straight up against the NFC and 1-8-1 ATS, which is the second worst mark in the NFL over that span. The Ravens will also be playing at Lambeau Field, a place where they've never won in their 21-year franchise history (0-3).
Buccaneers (3-6) at Dolphins (4-4)
Opening line: Dolphins, -3 points
This game was originally supposed to take place in Week 1, but got postponed until Week 11 due to Hurricane Irma. For the Dolphins, that ended up working out because it means they'll get to face a Buccaneers team that won't have Jameis Winston under center. Betting the Buccaneers this season has been a bad idea as Tampa is just 2-6-1 ATS, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL. The Bucs are actually even worse on the road, going 0-3-1 ATS and 0-4 straight up. Not to mention, the Bucs haven't won in Miami since 2000. Of course, if you bet this game, don't be surprised if you push. At 3-3-2 ATS, the Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that has pushed twice this season.
Rams (7-2) at Vikings (7-2)
Opening line: Vikings, -2.5 points
The NFC's best road team will be putting their undefeated road record on the line in this game. Not only are the Rams 4-0 away from home this season, but they're also 3-1 ATS. Overall, these have been two of the best teams at covering the spread this year. Both the Rams and the Vikings are 6-3 ATS in 2017, which is tied for the third best mark in the NFL. One thing to keep in mind about the Vikings is that they've been the safest bet in the NFL since hiring Mike Zimmer in 2014. Under Zimmer, the Vikings are 39-19 ATS since the beginning of the 2014 season, which is better than any other team in the NFL. The Vikings are also 4-1 both straight up and ATS in home games this year.
Redskins (4-5) at Saints (7-2)
Opening line: Saints, -7.5 points
The Saints have been on such a roll lately that if you had started betting them in Week 3 and then let your winnings ride, you'd be a rich man. Since starting the season 0-2, the Saints have gone a seven-game winning streak that also includes a 7-0 mark ATS, making them the only team in the NFL that has covered in seven straight games. Overall, the Saints are 7-2 ATS, which is tied with the Eagles for the best mark in the NFL. The Saints have been favored by a touchdown or more in two games this season and they've covered in both games. The Redskins are 3-6 ATS this season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. That being said, Drew Brees has struggled against the Redskins in his Saints career, going 1-4 straight up in five games against Washington.
Chiefs (6-3) at Giants (1-8)
Opening line: Chiefs, -13.5 points
You don't have to look back that far to find the last time the Giants were an underdog of 13 or more points. Back in Week 6, the Giants were a 13.5-point underdog in the game where they stunned the Broncos 23-10 in Denver. Since drafting Eli Manning in 2004, the Giants are 2-0 ATS in games where they're an underdog of 13 or more points, a total that includes the Broncos game from this year. Of course, if Ben McAdoo were to get fired this week, the Giants could get a small emotional edge heading into this game.
Cardinals (4-5) at Texans (3-6)
Opening line: Cardinals, -1.5 points
With Drew Stanton battling a knee injury, there's a chance the Cardinals could be down to their third-string quarterback in this game, which means we could be getting Blaine Gabbert against the Texans defense. If that doesn't scare you away from the Cardinals, maybe this will: Arizona is just 2-6-1 ATS this season, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Bills (5-4) at Chargers (3-6)
Opening line: Chargers, -4 points
In what might be one of the weirdest stats of the week, the Chargers are actually pretty bad when they're a home favorite of three points or more. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Chargers have been favored by three or more points a total of 10 times at home and they've gone 3-7 straight up in those games and just 2-8 ATS. Of course, most of those games were played in San Diego, so maybe the move to Los Angeles will change their luck. One bad thing for the Bills is that they seem to struggle out west. Since 2005, they're 1-7 straight up in games that are played in the pacific time zone.
Bengals (3-6) at Broncos (3-6)
Opening line: Broncos, -2.5 points
Betting on the Broncos over the past few weeks has basically been the same as throwing your money away. Including Sunday night's loss to the Patriots, the Broncos have now lost five in row and they haven't covered the spread in any of those games. As a matter of fact, the Broncos are 2-6-1 ATS this year, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL. Of course, betting on the Bengals to win in Denver is almost never a good idea. The Bengals are 0-10 in their past 10 trips to the Mile High City and haven't won in Denver since 1975.
Patriots (7-2) vs. Raiders (4-5) in Mexico City
Opening line: Patriots, -5.5 points
For the second straight year, the Raiders are hosting a game in Mexico City, and this year, it's the Patriots who are heading south of the border to face them. The NFL actually did the Patriots a huge favor for this game. The Patriots played in Denver on Sunday, which means they should be prepared for the extreme altitude that they'll see when they get to Mexico City, which sits nearly 7,400-feet above sea level. This will mark the eighth time this season the Patriots have been favored by five or more points and they're 3-4 ATS in those games. The Patriots have been one of the safest bets in the NFL over the past few weeks, going 5-0 in their past five games and 4-1 ATS. Also, the Raiders haven't beaten New England since 2002.
Eagles (8-1) at Cowboys (5-4)
Opening line: Eagles, -3.5 points
It's not often that the Eagles are favored to win in Dallas, but when they are, they almost always win. Since 2000, the Eagles have only been favored to win in Dallas a total of eight times, and they've gone 7-1 straight up in those games (5-3 ATS). As for the 2017 season, the Eagles are 7-2 ATS this year, which is tied for the top mark in the NFL. Of course, this game is in primetime, which is one place where the Cowboys have dominated. Since Dak Prescott became quarterback in 2016, the Cowboys have gone 7-1 in night games (5-3 ATS).
Falcons (5-4) at Seahawks (6-3)
Opening line: Seahawks, -3 points
For the second year in a row, the Falcons are heading to Seattle where Falcons coach Dan Quinn will be going up against his former team. Last season, these two teams met twice, including once in the postseason, and the Falcons covered in both games. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean anything this year because the Falcons have been one of the worst teams at covering, going just 3-6 ATS. The Falcons are also an ugly 1-4 ATS in road games this year, which is the second-worst mark in the NFC. One advantage for the Falcons is that they'll be going up against a Seahawks defense that won't have Richard Sherman. On the other hand, there's a chance that Devonta Freeman could miss this game after being placed in concussion protocol in Week 10.
