Welcome to the Pick Six Newsletter!
Happy Tuesday to everyone out there; well, except for the guy who lost out on $736,000 because he needed the Lions to win last night. It's probably not a happy Tuesday for him.
I have to say though, last night's game was a lot more exciting than I thought it would be. I assumed I'd be able to turn the game off before the first half ended because the Packers would be up 28-0, but I couldn't do that because the Lions actually LED 17-14 at halftime.
Maybe biting kneecaps off is a better football philosophy than we all thought. It's also possible the Lions were pumped up because they were wearing white pants for the first time SINCE 1949. Sure, you're not supposed to wear white after Labor Day, but I think the Lions actually made it work (You can check out their special uniform combination from last night by clicking here). Of course, biting kneecaps and special uniforms will only take you so far. The Lions went full Lions in the second half and ended up losing 35-17.
Anyway, we have a jam-packed newsletter that includes picks for this week plus Prisco's Week 3 Power Rankings, so we should probably get to the rundown. We'll also explain how the Lions cost that guy $736,000.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them.
1. Today's show: Recapping the Packers' win over the Lions
I was fully expecting this game to be a total snoozer, but the Lions actually made things interesting. At least for the first half. After taking a 17-14 lead into the locker room at halftime, the Lions absolutely imploded in the second half and didn't score a single point.
Are the Lions better than we thought? How many games can they win this year? Are we still worried about the Packers even though they won? We answered those questions and more on our Tuesday episode of the Pick Six Podcast.
Not only did we answer those questions, but here are three key things from the game that we also touched on:
- Aaron Rodgers looks like Aaron Rodgers. After a rough start to the season, Aaron Rodgers finally looked like Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback got off to a hot start in the first half with two touchdown passes and then only got even better as the game went on. Not only did he finish 22 of 27 for 255 yards and four touchdowns, but he also went an absurd 16 of 17 on second and third down. It was a vintage Rodgers performance and if he keeps playing like this, the Packers are going to coast to a division title. The Packers quarterback also made a mark on the record book, passing John Elway for the 10th most passing yards in NFL history.
- Aaron Jones has a huge night. The Packers running back had a career game with four touchdowns. Not only did Jones do some damage on the ground (67 yards, one touchdown), but he also did some serious damage through the air (six catches, 48 yards, three touchdowns). With the performance, Jones became just the ninth player since 1950 to record three receiving TDs and a rushing TD in a single game. I hope you weren't playing him in fantasy.
- Lions implode in the second half. The Lions actually got off to a hot start in this game and that was mostly thanks to Jared Goff, who went 13 of 16 for 137 yards and two touchdowns in a first half that ended with Detroit in the lead. The Lions had a chance to keep this game close in the second half, but then they totally melted down. On their first possession of the half, they failed on a fourth-and-1. On their second possession of the half, Goff fumbled a snap away on first down. The Packers ended up scoring a TD after both errors and at that point, the rout was on.
We talked about those three things plus everything else you could possibly want to know about Monday's game, so be sure to check it out. To listen to today's episode -- and to subscribe to the best daily NFL podcast out there -- be sure to click here.
2. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 3
With Week 2 officially in the bag after the Packers' win over the Lions, Pete Prisco got busy last night rearranging his power rankings. Although I'll be honest, he didn't do much rearranging in the top five: We actually have the same top five teams as last week, just in a slightly different order.
Here's a look at Prisco's top five teams heading into Week 3, which features the two Super Bowl teams from last season and three teams from the NFC West:
I'm not going to spoil the rest of the power rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since last week:
- Prisco is not sleeping on the Panthers anymore. After watching them destroy the Saints on Sunday, he moved Carolina up 12 spots, which was the biggest jump made by any team this week. Thanks to the win, the Panthers vaulted up from 23rd to 11th.
- The biggest overall tumble went to three different teams, who all tied for the honor. The Saints, Steelers and Seahawks all fell seven spots after losing in Week 3. The Saints fell from 6th to 13th while the Steelers dropped from 7th to 14th. The Seahawks finished right behind those two, falling from 8th to 15th.
- The biggest jump in the AFC this week went to the Raiders, who vaulted up eight spots following their surprising win over the Steelers. Prisco moved them up from 16th to eighth.
- In news that probably won't surprise many of you, the Jaguars are ranked dead last, and based on how they played Sunday, I'm starting to think they might be there for the entire season, although the Falcons are coming on strong with two ugly losses to start the year.
If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 3 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.
3. Breech's Week 3 picks
If it's Tuesday, that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks.
If this is your first season with us, here's how the formula works around here: I stay up until an insane hour every Monday night so that I can give you my picks every Tuesday morning. This newsletter will feature three of my picks and then if you feel like reading the rest of them, you can click through here and check them out. Even if you don't feel like reading them, you should still click through because I get paid nine cents per click.
With that in mind, here are three of my picks for Week 3:
- Buccaneers at Rams (Pick'em): If I'm a 44-year-old quarterback, the last person on the planet I want to go up against is Aaron Donald. The way you beat Tom Brady is by putting a lot of pressure on him and we know the Rams can do that. The Rams actually beat the Buccaneers last year and part of the reason it happened was because Brady was forced into having one of his worst games. He threw 22 incompletions, he threw two interceptions and he was flustered for most of the night. I think we're going to see a lot of that same stuff happen this year. PICK: Rams 34-31 over Buccaneers.
- New Orleans at New England (-3): The idea of Jameis Winston going up against a Bill Belichick defense seems like a mismatch of epic proportions, kind of like me going up against Celine Dion in a karaoke contest. We saw Jameis struggle against the Panthers in Week 2 and I actually think things are going to be much more difficult for him this week. I won't be surprised if we see a classic Jamies game where he throws multiple interceptions with at least one pick-six. For me, this game is going to come down to whether Mac Jones can move the ball against the Saints defense and I think he'll do just enough to get the win and the cover. PICK: Patriots 20-16 over Saints.
- Atlanta at New York Giants (-5): The Falcons might be the worst team in football. Not only are they 0-2, but they've lost those two games by an AVERAGE of 24.5 points per game. Their offense is bad, their defense is bad and I'm not sure they're going to have enough time to get things turned around before Sunday. Also, Eli Manning is having his jersey retired at this game and I can't see the Giants losing on Eli Manning jersey retirement night, although that would be a typical Giants move. PICK: Giants 31-23 over Falcons.
To check out the rest of my picks for Week 3, be sure to click here.
4. One thing we learned about each team in Week 2
Now that all 16 games from Week 2 have been played, Cody Benjamin decided to wade through the aftermath to figure out what we learned about each team. For some teams, like the Panthers, this was a good thing because we learned that Sam Darnold just needed to leave the Jets to be good. For other teams, like the Dolphins, this was a bad thing, because it's starting to look like they might not be as good as they were last year.
Here's a look at what we learned about five teams:
- Cowboys: Give Tony Pollard more touches. "Even with Ezekiel Elliott posting solid numbers in their win, Tony Pollard is clearly the team's most explosive back. Imagine if Dallas keeps feeding him as their top option out of the backfield."
- Raiders: This team might be for real. "An upset of the Ravens, followed by a road win over the Steelers? Is Derek Carr really onto something, or is he just teasing us again? Right now, their stock is up."
- Steelers: The offense looks terrible. "With Ben Roethlisberger physically and/or schematically confined to a short-area approach, they need their defense to carry them. This was kind of apparent before, but it keeps getting reinforced."
- Buccaneers: They look like the best team in the NFC. "Tom Brady is throwing it like he's 25. Their defense is back to making splash plays. Yes, a lot can happen between now and the playoffs, but they look explosive."
- Cardinals: Kyler Murray is playing at an MVP level. "After reeling off one highlight-reel shot after another in a shootout win over Minnesota, Kyler Murray is an early MVP candidate. And if he keeps it up, the Cardinals will be in the playoff race."
If you want to see the one thing we learned about all 32 teams, you can check out Cody's entire story by clicking here.
5. NFL gambler loses out on $736,000 due to Lions loss
An NFL gambler almost pulled off one of the most unlikely parlays of all-time in Week 2, but he ended up missing out on a chance to win more than $700,000 thanks to the Lions.
The gambler put together a 16-team parlay over at BetMGM where he attempted to pick the winner in all 16 NFL games that were played in Week 2. The gambler bet $25 on his parlay and if he could have gotten a Lions win on Monday night, he would have won $736,959.
Through Sunday night, he was 15-for-15 with EVERY single one of his picks hitting.
Here's a look at what his picks were through the first 15 games.
Washington over Giants (-175)
Bears over Bengals (-130)
Browns over Texans (-650)
Rams over Colts (-190)
Bills over Dolphins (-175)
Patriots over Jets (-250)
49ers over Eagles (-160)
Raiders over Steelers (+190)
Panthers over Saints (+150)
Broncos over Jaguars (-275)
Cardinals over Vikings (-190)
Buccaneers over Falcons (-650)
Cowboys over Chargers (+135)
Titans over Seahawks (+190)
Ravens over Chiefs (+180)
First, let me just point out how improbable it is that this parlay was even alive going into Monday. First of all, he almost lost in on the very first game of Week 2. If the Giants don't jump offsides on Washington's game-winning field goal attempt, then New York would have won.
This guy also would have lost the parlay if the Vikings beat the Cardinals, but that didn't happen because Greg Joseph missed a 37-yard field goal on the final play of the game. Also, he could have lost the parlay if the Chiefs or Seahawks won, but that didn't happen because they BOTH blew a double-digit lead in the second half. The Seahawks blew a 15-point lead at home which had NEVER happened in franchise history before Sunday.
Heading into Monday, the gambler couldn't cash out his parlay because he had used a $25 free bet, which made him ineligible for a cash-out. The smart thing to do in this situation would be to hedge, but that means he would have needed to bet roughly $600,000 on the Packers to guarantee a payout of $100,000. As most normal people know, trying to hunt down someone to loan you $600,00 isn't easy.
I have no idea if this guy ended up hedging, but I do know he didn't win the $736,000, because the Lions ended up losing. The sad thing here is that if he had rolled with the Packers for the final leg of his parlay, he would have ended up winning roughly $150,000 on a free $25 bet.
The moral of the story here is never bet on the Lions.
6. Rapid-fire roundup
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. Our roundup today is mostly an update on every quarterback injury that happened over the weekend.
- Deshaun Watson definitely won't play Thursday, Davis Mills in. With Tyrod Taylor out, there was some speculation that the Texans might try to convince Watson to play this week against the Panthers, but that won't be happening. Coach David Culley made it clear that Watson will be inactive for the game. Davis Mills will be the starter and Jeff Driskel, who's currently on the practice squad, will likely be the backup.
- Tua Tagovailoa could play on Sunday. The Dolphins quarterback suffered a rib injury in Week 2 and although it's still unclear when he'll be back on the field, he could play this week against the Raiders. Dolphins coach Brian Flores said on Monday that Tua is "day-to-day."
- Derek Carr questionable for Week 3. There's a chance that both starting quarterbacks could be out for the Dolphins-Raiders game this week. Derek Carr injured his ankle against the Steelers on Sunday and Jon Gruden said this week that Carr is "questionable" for the game against Miami. Gruden also added that Josh Jacobs is "very questionable" for the game.
- Colts have no idea if Carson Wentz will be able to play this week. Frank Reich is hoping Carson Wentz will be able to play this week against the Titans, but there's no guarantee that's going to happen after Wentz hurt both his ankles in Week 2. Reich wants him to play, but doesn't know if it will be possible. "My history with Carson is that he's a pretty fast healer and he's tough. If there's any chance he can play with these ankle sprains, he'll play. It's an incredibly big game," Reich said Monday.
- Andy Dalton will be the Bears starter if he's healthy. During an awkward press conference on Monday, Bears coach Matt Nagy wasn't originally going to commit to a starter, but then he later confirmed that Dalton will be the Bears quarterback on Sunday if he's healthy enough to play. Dalton injured his knee against the Bengals in Week 2. If Dalton can't go, then Justin Fields will be under center.
- Buccaneers have reached out to Richard Sherman. With starting cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting now on injured reserve, the Buccaneers need some help in the secondary, which is why they reached out to Sherman this week, according to Bruce Arians. The Buccaneers coach noted that Sherman has some "other things going on," which might keep him from signing anytime soon. The veteran corner was charged with five misdemeanors after a legal incident in July.
- Al Micheals could be headed to Amazon. With Amazon getting ready to exclusively take over "Thursday Night Football" in 2022, the company is looking to make splash and that splash could be the hiring of Michaels. According to the New York Post, the internet company is 90% likely to hire the famous broadcaster. Michaels is expected to be available for the hiring because his NBC contract is expiring after the 2021 season.
- Taco Tuesday in Pittsburgh. Former Cowboys' first-round pick Taco Charlton is in Pittsburgh today undergoing a physical for the Steelers. According to NFL.com, if the physical goes well, the team's plan is sign Charlton to their practice squad.
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